[woodcote]

Ah, what a difference a week makes...

Although we probably weren't looking at a return until late September, the current rise in hospital admissions and deaths due to new Covid infections have put that into question.

Ignoring the numbers for a minute, this modelling of hospitalisation rates show the predicted timing of the third wave in the UK...

   

That suggests the low hospitalisation rates of a few weeks ago won't return until November or December. And then we have the triple cocktail of Covid, seasonal 'flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) to deal with over the winter.

For many people who are double-jabbed and in good health, it'll be a case of trying to get back to some sort of normal life and managing these risks. The extent of the risk will depend on how quickly groups like ours return to 'pre-pandemic behaviour'.

The UK government are currently updating advice to those in the clinically extremely vulnerable group - essentially a return to shielding (as in the previous two waves). This will mean mostly staying at home, only meeting people who are double-jabbed and only meeting outside. It's a reminder that a sizeable proportion of the population are still very vulnerable to Covid, despite the vaccines.

Last year we decided as a club that we'd only return when can all do so safely. We re-confirmed that decision a couple of months ago. As things stand, we can't consider returning to the Barn until after this third wave of the pandemic is over. It's also a duty to our wider community - and especially to the NHS and care workers at WHO - not to add fuel to the fire.

Even then, we will need to look at making the Barn as safe as possible. That could mean asking everyone to test themselves for asymptomatic Covid. For those not tested at work, lateral flow self-tests are available for free from the NHS (see here) and there is talk of developing a similar 'triple test' for Covid, 'flu and RSV. We'll also need to strictly observe the 'hands-face-space-fresh air' advice at the Barn. Those last two will be a challenge. We want the racing to be fun - and too many restrictions won't be conducive to the relaxed, enjoyable escape from everyday life that we expect. However, we simply can't make any short cuts that either put members of our WHO family at risk or exclude them from the group.

We always had a vague plan to avoid a 'bumpy winter' and take a break in January / February 2022. This looks very likely. Maybe we'll be able to get back for a month or two before Christmas - but we'll see what happens and what new surprises the lifting of restrictions throws up.

In the meantime... we do have the HO proxy drag races to take part in - and next year's Winter Rally-Sprint to start preparing for. Gareth's 'Limit of Adhesion'  i-Racing group continues - and I suspect there will be some small-group home racing (indoors and outdoors) during the summer and autumn. The most important thing is for us all to stay safe.