12th-Jun-21, 08:59 AM
The club is still busy with preparations... but a date for our return is probably further away now than it was ten days ago when Simon and I visited the Barn. It looks like the final step of the easing of lockdown restrictions will be delayed by at least a month - the government is caught between the need to protect the NHS against another surge of hospital admissions and very strong lobbying by the hospitality and travel industries.
The problem is the transmission rates of the new Indian/Delta strain of the virus. The latest data suggests it is 50-60% more transmissible than the Kent/Alpha variant that fueled the high death rates over the winter. The Indian variant is now the dominant strain within the third wave that is currently gathering pace. Modelling by Warwick University shows the possible impact if that data is correct...
That shows more hospital admissions than during either of the two previous waves. Thankfully, the vaccine seems to have broken the link between cases and deaths, but not - it seems - between cases and hospital admissions. This is mostly likely because over half the population (when children are included) don't have the protection of two vaccine doses. It seems very wise to delay the final easing of lockdown while the rest of the population are vaccinated - and see what happens to the hospital admission data.
What does this mean for us at WHO Racing? In the short-term, it means we continue to prepare and continue to be patient while the scientists and government get to grips with this third wave. It does seem more people - including young people - are suffering a more severe illness with the new variant. And - of course - those with 'under-performing' immune systems are at significantly more risk from the increased transmissibility and the more severe symptoms. Our club has plenty of youngsters and a few dodgy immune systems... These changes in the nature of the virus will have an impact on our priority of keeping everyone at the club safe. Sadly, I think it is wise to expect a longer delay than we might have been looking at.
Please take care and stay safe.
The problem is the transmission rates of the new Indian/Delta strain of the virus. The latest data suggests it is 50-60% more transmissible than the Kent/Alpha variant that fueled the high death rates over the winter. The Indian variant is now the dominant strain within the third wave that is currently gathering pace. Modelling by Warwick University shows the possible impact if that data is correct...
That shows more hospital admissions than during either of the two previous waves. Thankfully, the vaccine seems to have broken the link between cases and deaths, but not - it seems - between cases and hospital admissions. This is mostly likely because over half the population (when children are included) don't have the protection of two vaccine doses. It seems very wise to delay the final easing of lockdown while the rest of the population are vaccinated - and see what happens to the hospital admission data.
What does this mean for us at WHO Racing? In the short-term, it means we continue to prepare and continue to be patient while the scientists and government get to grips with this third wave. It does seem more people - including young people - are suffering a more severe illness with the new variant. And - of course - those with 'under-performing' immune systems are at significantly more risk from the increased transmissibility and the more severe symptoms. Our club has plenty of youngsters and a few dodgy immune systems... These changes in the nature of the virus will have an impact on our priority of keeping everyone at the club safe. Sadly, I think it is wise to expect a longer delay than we might have been looking at.
Please take care and stay safe.
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